CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z FRI 14/01 - 06Z SAT 15/01 2005
ISSUED: 13/01 17:35Z
FORECASTER: GATZEN

General thunderstorms are forecast across eastern Mediterranean

SYNOPSIS

East of western European ridge ... upper trough expands into eastern Mediterranean, where the focus of convective activity is expected on Friday. Slightly unstable airmass is present over the Mediterranean as indicated by latest soundings. Weak QG forcing is expected in the range of the eastern trough, and showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast. Due to low instability and forcing ... and relatively weak vertical wind shear ... severe thunderstorms are not likely.

DISCUSSION

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